Creating Wealth for Prairie Farmers Sample
© Wild Oats Publishing 2021
Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory
Wild Oats Publishing
Site Created August 15, 1996;  Last Updated August 10, 2021
Web site created by Branscombe Consulting 
   Wild Oats is published 40 times per year by Wild Oats Publishing, 905 - 167 Lombard Avenue, Winnipeg R3B 0V3. Tel. (204) 942-1459 Fax (204) 942-7652 E-mail: wildoats@canadagrain.com    Information is secured from sources believed reliable, but 100% accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Persons associated with Wild Oats deal commercially with businesses active in Prairie grain markets and may hold positions on their own accounts in commodities discussed herein. ISSN 1185-2194    Copyright 2020. All rights reserved. The Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory is protected by copyright. Copying, retransmission or redistribution, in whole or in part, without the prior written approval of Wild Oats Publishing is strictly prohibited.
Manitoba Farmgate Prices    Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of June 7, 2016. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Jul at $518  Del Elevator 3 - 36 482 - 515 10.94 - 11.67   New Crop 2016 Del 15 - 43 481 - 509 10.92 - 11.54  Bunge (del)    Altona: $11.67 (Jun); $11.67 (Jul); New: $11.45 - 11.54    Harrowby: $11.39 (Jun); $11.50 (Jul); New: $11.34 - 11.45  Nexera $12.57 - 12.69 (Jun); $12.57 - 12.69 (Jul); Fall: $12.70 - 12.79 Barley  Del Elevator 163 - 188 3.55 - 4.10  Malt Del Elevator 225 - 253 4.90 - 5.50   New: Del Elev: 2 Row $5.25; 6 Row $5.05 Wheat  Feed Del Elevator 224 6.10   Feed FOB Farm 193 - 211 5.25 - 5.75  Milling Wheat (Del Elev)     CWRW #2 175 - 186 4.77 - 5.06       Fall 2016 183 - 193 4.97 - 5.26     CWRS #1 226 - 240 6.14 - 6.53       New Crop 2016 230 - 244 6.25 - 6.63     CPSR not quoted Flax $10.75 - 11.00 FOB Farm; $11.18 del Oats $2.40 - 2.50 FOB Farm; $2.82 - 2.98 del New: $2.83 - 2.93 del Corn  $4.50 - 4.95 del; New Crop: $4.89 del Soybeans  $11.53 - 12.61 del  New: $12.43 - 12.99 del Lentils  Lairds: #1: 60 - 69¢; 72¢ del Sk; #2: 60¢; 60 - 70¢ del Sk   X3: 48 - 60¢ del Sk; #3: 40 - 52¢ del Sk New: #1: 45¢; 44 - 45¢ del  Eston: #1: 53 - 59¢; 60 - 63¢ del Sk; #2: 50 - 58¢ del Sk   X3: 48 - 50¢ del Sk; #3: 38 - 45¢ del Sk New: #1: 34 - 35¢; 35 - 36¢ del  Richlea: #1: 62¢; 46 - 66¢ del Sk; #2: 60¢; 44 - 66¢ del Sk   X3: 49 - 59¢ del Sk; #3: 38 - 51¢ del Sk New: #1: 36¢; 38 - 40¢ del  Crimson: #2+: 43¢; 38 - 48¢ del Sk; X3: 24 - 38¢ del Sk   #3: 26 - 34¢ del Sk New: #2+: 28 - 31¢; 29 - 40¢ del Canary Seed 22 - 26¢; 23¢ del Sk; New: 24¢; 23 - 26¢ del Sunflower Oil: not quoted; Conf: not quoted Peas Green: $8.25 - 9.00; $9.00 - 9.75 del Sk New: $8.75 - 9.00  Yellow: $12.00 - 12.50; $9.00 - 12.50 del Sk;   New Crop 2016: $8.75 - 9.00; $8.74 - 9.80 del Sk  Feed: $6.50 - 7.00 Mustard  Yellow: 44¢; 43 - 45¢ del Sk;  New Crop 2016: 35 - 36¢  Brown: 33 - 35¢; 34 - 35¢ del Sk; New Crop 2016: 35 - 37¢  Oriental: 46¢; 44.5 - 47¢ del Sk; New Crop 2016: 35 - 37¢ Delivered North Dakota Plant/Elevator - $US/bu [$Cnd/bu in brackets] DNS [14%]: $4.51 - 4.81 [$5.76 - 6.14] Durum: $5.50 - 6.25 [$7.02 - 7.98] Oats: $1.75 - 2.00 [$2.23 - 2.55] Flax: $7.80 - 8.75 [$9.96 - 11.17] Corn: $3.43 - 3.72 [$4.38 - 4.75] New: $3.43 - 3.73 [$4.38 - 4.76] Barley Feed: $2.05 - 2.70 [$2.62 - 3.45] Malt: $3.45 - 3.51 [$4.40 - 4.48] Soybeans: $10.06 - 10.46 [$12.84 - 12.35] Canola: $8.55 - 9.20 [$10.91 - 11.74] Peas Yellow: $6.75 - 12.25 [$8.62 - 15.64] Green: $6.75 - 7.00 [$8.62 - 8.94] Sunflwr NuSun:15.1 - 17.4¢ [19.2 - 22.1¢] New:15.7 - 18.0¢ [20.0 - 23.0¢] Pinto: 26.0 - 27.0¢ [33.2 - 34.5¢] Navy: 22.0 - 25.0¢ [28.1 - 31.9¢] Black: 22.0 - 24.0¢ [28.1 - 30.6¢] Kidney Drk Red not quoted Saskatchewan Farmgate Prices    Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of June 7, 2016. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Jul at $518  Del Elevator 10 - 47 471 - 508 10.68 - 11.52  Del Elev Fall 2016 21 - 46 478 - 503 10.85 - 11.41  Bunge (del)   Nipawin: $11.39 (Jun); $11.48 (Jul); New: $11.16 - 11.27   Dixon: not quoted  Nexera $12.02 - 12.70 (un); $12.02 - 12.70 (Jul); $12.02 - 12.63 (Fall) Barley  Feed Del Elevator 143 - 170 3.11 - 3.70   FOB Farm 161 - 171 3.50 - 3.75   Fall 2016 Del Elev 140 - 151 3.05 - 3.40  Malt Fall 2016 Del Elev 253 5.50 Wheat  Feed Del Elevator 179 - 220 4.87 - 6.00   FOB Farm 193 - 211 5.25 - 5.75   Fall 2016 185 - 193 5.05 - 5.25  Milling (Del Elevator)  CWRW #2 175 - 184 4.76 - 5.01  CWRS #1 227 - 240 6.17 - 6.53   New Crop 220 - 234 5.98 - 6.37  CPRS #1 183 - 209 4.98 - 5.70   New Crop 182 - 204 4.95 - 5.55  Durum #1 273 - 292 7.43 - 7.95   New Crop  261 - 272 7.10 - 7.41 Flax $10.75 - 11.00 FOB Farm; $10.93 - 11.50 del Oats $2.40 - 2.50 FOB Farm; $2.20 - 2.68 del Fall 2016 $2.39 - 2.69 del Lentils Laird #1: 60 - 69¢; 72¢ del; #2: 60¢; 60 - 70¢ del;  X3: 48 - 60¢ del   #3: 40 - 52¢ del; New 2016: #1: 45¢; 44 - 45¢ del; #2: 43¢; 40 - 43¢ del  Eston: #1: 53 - 59¢; 60 - 63¢ del; #2: 50 - 58¢ del; X3: 48 - 50¢ del   #3: 38 - 45¢ del; New 2016: #1: 34 - 35¢; 35 - 36¢ del: #2:  33 - 38¢ del  Richlea: #1: 62¢; 46 - 66¢ del; #2: 60¢; 44 - 66¢ del; X3: 49 - 59¢ del   #3: 38 - 51¢ del; New 2016: #1: 36¢; 38 - 40¢ del: #2: 34 - 38¢  Crimson: #2+: 43¢; 38 - 48¢ del; X3: 24 - 38¢ del; #3: 26 - 34¢ del   New Crop 2016: #2+: 28 - 31¢; 29 - 40¢ del; X3: 26 - 27¢ del Canary Seed    22 - 26¢; 23¢ del; New: 24¢; 23 - 26¢ del Sunflower Oil: not quoted; Conf: not quoted Peas  Green: $8.25 - 9.00; $9.00 - 9.75 del; New: $8.75 - 9.00; $7.60 - 9.50 del  Yellow: $12.00 - 12.50; $9.00 - 12.50 del; New: $8.75 - 9.00; $8.74 - 9.80 del  Feed Peas: $6.50 - 7.00; $6.35 del Chickpeas Desi #1: 29.5 - 31¢ del; Kabuli 10mm: 40 - 45¢; 57 - 58¢ del Mustard  Yellow: 44¢; 43 - 45¢ del; New: 35- 36¢; 33 - 35¢ del  Brown: 33 - 35¢; 34 - 35¢ del; New: 35 - 37¢; 35 - 37¢ del  Oriental: 46¢; 44.5 - 47¢ del; New: 35 - 37¢; 33 - 35¢ del Alberta Farmgate Prices    Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of June 7, 2016. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Jul at $518   Del Elevator 16 - 34 484 - 502 10.97 - 11.38   Bunge 16 502 11.38  New Crop 2016 (Del) 21 - 39 485 - 503 11.00 - 11.40  Nexera  $12.16 - 12.27 (Jun); $12.27 - 12.29 (Jul); $12.09 - 12.34 (New) Barley  Feed Del Elevator 147 - 208 3.20 - 4.53   Lethbridge 208 4.53   Vermillion 200 - 206 4.35 - 4.49   Rycroft 147 - 179 3.20 - 3.90 Wheat  Feed Del Elevator 197 - 236 5.37 - 6.42   Lethbridge 232 - 235 6.31 - 6.40   Red Deer 231 - 236 6.29 - 6.42  Milling (Del Elev)   CWRW 177 - 186 4.82 - 5.05    Fall 2016 187 - 195 5.08 - 5.30   CWRS #1 233 - 249 6.35 - 6.79    New Crop 2016 229 - 246 6.24 - 6.69   CPRS #1 194 - 221 5.28 - 6.02    New Crop 2016 198 - 216 5.40 - 5.88   Durum 287 - 298 7.82 - 8.12 Oats  Del Elevator 162 - 200 2.50 - 3.08   Lethbridge 176 - 200 2.71 - 3.08   Rycroft: not quoted Flax $11.16 del Lentils  Laird:#1: 60 - 69¢; 72¢ del Sk; #2: 60¢; 60 - 70¢ del Sk   X3: 48 - 60¢ del Sk; #3: 40 - 52¢ del Sk; New 2016: #1: 45¢; 44 - 45¢ del  Eston: #1: 53 - 59¢; 60 - 63¢ del Sk; #2: 50 - 58¢ del Sk   X3: 48 - 50¢ del; #3: 38 - 45¢ del; New 2016: #1: 34 - 35¢; 35 - 36¢ del Sk  Richlea: #1: 62¢; 46 - 66¢ del Sk; #2: 60¢; 44 - 66¢ del Sk   X3: 49 - 59¢ del Sk; #3: 38 - 51¢ del Sk; New Crop: #1: 36¢; 38 - 40¢ del  Crimson: #2+: 43¢; 38 - 48¢ del Sk; X3: 24 - 38¢ del Sk   #3: 26 - 34¢ del Sk; New Crop 2016: #2+: 28 - 31¢; 29 - 40¢ del Sk Canary Seed  22 - 26¢; 23¢ del Sk; 24¢; 23 - 26¢ del Sk Peas  Green: $8.25 - 9.00; $9.00 - 9.75 del Sk; New: $8.75 - 9.00  Yellow: $12.00 - 12.50; $9.00 - 12.50 del; New: $8.75 - 9.00  Feed: $6.50 - 7.00; $6.10 - 7.76 del Chick Peas  Desi: #1: 29.5 - 31¢ del; Kabuli: 10mm 40 - 45¢ Mustard  Yellow: 44¢; 43 - 45¢ del Sk; New Crop 2016: 35 - 36¢  Brown: 33 - 35¢; 34 - 35¢ del Sk; New Crop 2016: 35 - 37¢  Oriental: 46¢; 44.5 - 47¢ del Sk; New Crop 2016: 35 - 37¢ Delivered Montana Elevator - $US/bu [ $Cnd/bu in brackets ] DNS [14%]:  $4.41 - 5.36 [$5.63 - 6.84] Durum: $6.10 - 6.50 [$7.79 - 8.30] HRW [13%]:  $3.70 - 4.86 [$4.72 - 6.20]     Barley Feed:  $2.40 - 2.76 [$3.06 - 3.52] Malt: $4.32 [$5.52] Delivered Colorado Plant/Elevator - US¢/lb [ $Cdn/lb in brackets ] Pinto: 28.0¢ [35.7¢]; Great Northern: not quoted
Back to Top Back to Top
Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory To subscribe call 1-800-567-5671 or complete the order form.
25.57 Sep 287.4 -0.5 29790 +1674 332.7 287.9 Oct 28.45 Oct 289.0 -0.4 -0.3 19317 +531 325.9 +896 336.8 36.23 3217 -70 3.33 -16634 +16168 4.24 203787 -2167 5.86 Corn Jul Oats Jul Dec Wheat Jul Dec Mar +0.05 590244 3.24 3.38 +0.04 379601 289.4 4.78 3.11 Sep 3.29 +0.05 298210 +31005 4.35 3.18 3.28 Mar 3.50 +0.03 61095 +3973 4.20 3.39 4.71 Sep 5.13 +0.02 84281 +6078 5.93 4.77 5.08 +0.01 5.24 +0.05 65011 +2317 5.33 +0.05 24428 +432 +3441 +308 3.28 -0.03 -0.02 1745 2.98 2.42 5.84 4.90 6.05 5.35 2.42 2.95 2.50 Dec 2.79 Sep 2.94 +0.01 538 Open Close Chng* Int. Chicago Merchantile Exchange Mar 2.81 -0.06 15 Chng* Contract Hi Low Live Cattle Jun 95.30 -4.10 26734 -7437 127.18 83.80 Aug 96.20 -3.05 120932 +13754 117.55 86.60 Mar 5.54 +0.01 4626 +103 6.11 5.42 19344 -6498 90.85 Oct 99.43 -2.20 56304 Lean Hogs Jun 52.40 -8.10 93.65 50.98 +1653 119.35 84.88 Jul 54.88 -4.70 65194 116006 -7039 76.98 Aug 55.55 -1.60 47292 Canadian Jun 73.93 +1.27 5963 +1762 77.16 68.74 Dollar Sep 73.96 +1.35 Dec 74.00 +1.47 3119 [*Futures for June 2, 2020. Change since May 26, 2020] Corn Sep 77.28 68.41 +120 +5 2.99 2.55 68.69 +5868 91.80 51.90 43.95 +1011 Kansas City Board of Trade Close Chng* Open Chng* Contract 4.50 Mar Hi +809 5.75 +590 5.48 +1761 Int. Dec 4.71 +0.05 37639 4.83 +0.06 14368 4.64 Soybeans Jul 19.15 +0.06 Jul Sep Chng* Jul +0.13 397.53 +2.60 400.34 +0.78 Sep 4.58 +0.04 46335 +0.67 Aug 28.12 +0.67 8.37 +978 9.85 8.36 +8935 9.83 25.59 Jan 8.65 +0.06 66809 158657 -7743 34.87 Jul 27.94 +1223 9.83 8.33 295413 -20660 Sep 8.54 +0.04 26802 Sep 17.35 +0.45 7.38 Nov 15.60 +0.08 7.46 Nov Nov 467.10 -4.80 Oil Soybean Meal 473.50 Jan 15.33 Mar 479.10 Dec 5.41 Soybean Canola Jul 459.80 512 480 501 471 -0.40 -5.20 May 484.60 -4.80 Hi -4.90 Jan 89842 509 +594 518 Int. Winnipeg Grain Exchange Chicago Board of Trade Open Chng* Contract Close Chng* Close 82061 +3132 -145 1781 +243 3817 11359 +1396 509 469 9.85 Nov 8.61 +0.06 186004 Jul +0.04 25.76 Sep 28.29 +0.67 45266 +3620 36.25 25.69 8.30 54359 +1450 36.24 Jul 283.9 n.c. 167111 +0.66 23750 +649 289.0 38612 286.0 336.7 +1799 7.54 +0.11 Soymeal Jul 370.70 +2.96 Wheat 8.33 -0.08 Jan Jan 9.03 +0.28 Sep 392.62 +2.59 8.68 Nov Nov Jan 5.31 5.11 +0.09 8.80 -0.09 Close Chng* China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ($U.S.) Close Low -0.01 11350 +943 6.15 Aug 285.7 5.93 5.22 5.36 Wheat Jul 4.51 +0.04 HRW 4.33 Jul 489.50 -4.00 472 Low Wheat Jul 5.17 +0.12 +0.12 19720 +789 126300 -4537 5.71 4.22 7.28 +0.13 -0.01 36557 -14 6.32 Int. Hi Minneapolis Grain Exchange Close Chng* Open Chng* Contract HRS Sep 5.28 -0.01 +89 511 474 Nov 484.60 -7.10 416 Chng* +99 512 471 Soybeans 462 455 Low 8.51 Chng* Contract Int. Open Hi Low
From the Floor Opinion derived from traders    The world saw an initial increase in food demand after millions of businesses closed and their employees told to stay at home.    Lentil, pea, oat and wheat demand soared as people stocked up and had all day to sit around snacking.    Now the second part of that equation is showing up which is just the opposite. Restaurants, cafes and cafeterias account for 30% of all calories consumed world-wide. These have also been closed and that demand has plummeted. In addition, vast numbers of people are being squeezed financially. Forced to choose between meat and noodles, noodles are increasingly the choice. Since it takes about 5 pounds of grain to make one pound of meat, total global grain use has to be dropping. Street Smart - International Grains Council    Record harvest of wheat and corn will drive grain production to an all-time high in 2020-21.    The IGC is an intergovernmental agency monitoring global grain.
Back to Top Back to Top Back to Top Back to Top
Canadian Judge Again Declines to Resolve China Spat    A BC judge ruled that extradition proceedings can continue against the Huawei executive taken into custody by Canada at the request of the U.S. government. That arrest led to the halting of Chinese buying of Canadian soybeans and restrictions on canola imports.    China is involved in several disputes with several countries and additional retaliation against Canada does not appear likely. On the other hand the current restrictions will presumably continue.
INTERNET EDITION
Volume 30 Number 36 June 02, 2020
Re-broadcast, re-distribution and/or forwarding of the Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory, including internally within offices and organizations, is prohibited.
Finish Oat Sales - John Duvenaud    The prairie oat crop is essentially planted and generally looking good. Oats markets continue to be a gift to farmers as Quaker, and presumably the other oat bar and cereal manufacturers, have pumped up buying to satisfy the bump in demand for granola bars and Cheerios for the stuck-at- home masses.    Elevator bids, if anything, have mildly strengthened over the past week with $4.50/bu being paid by Pioneer at Mollard in the Red River Valley.    Complete 2019 oat sales with your final 20% sale and congratulations on your third great oat year in a row. Finish Soybean Sales    Soybeans are struggling. The only good news is that the American carryout this year will be half of that of a year ago and that soybean futures are strong today.    China continues to refuse to buy Canadian soybeans. They had been the major buyer of the low-protein soybeans produced in Western Canada and, after the arrest of the Huawei executive in Vancouver in December, 2018, took a page from their retaliation against Trump's tariffs. That was to go after American farmers who, to their eyes, epitomized Trump voters. They stopped buying American soybeans and encouraged the expansion of soybean production in Brazil. When China needed revenge against Canada they just repeated what they had done to the United States and, for good measure, added restrictions on canola.    There had been some hope that relationships with China could have normalized with the release of the Huawei exec but that has fallen back into what may be years of hearings and appeals.    The loss of China as a Canadian soybean buyer left us with the cheapest soybeans in the world. The trade did as good a job of finding alternative markets as you could hope for but selling to bargain hunters is a slow slug.    There's no problem with the new crop. American soybean planting is ahead of average. Crop conditions are positive with 70% good/excellent. Manitoba soybeans are a bit behind with the cool weather but most are planted and have emerged.    There is not a lot of optimism within the trade. The best hope most merchants see is that somehow US/Chinese relations deteriorate even further forcing China to come to Canada for soybeans. I doubt there is anything there.    Seasonals show that soybean price highs are typically in June/July.    One wild card could be COVID-19. Handling of goods is becoming an issue in many countries, specifically India, after millions of laborers were sent home. Soybeans trade near their multi-year lows and it could be that some authorities somewhere may see this as an opportunity to load up their storage while things are still working.    Sell the final 20% increment of your 2019 soybeans. Some elevators only have active bids when their merchants pull off an export sale. You should be able to find $9.50 to $10.10 in southern Manitoba.    New crop bids are at a modest premium to old crop but with prices in the lower part of their range we're not pre-pricing 2020 soybeans. .
Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba are short of moisture while much of Southern and Central Alberta are wet. Crops are mostly looking good.     American corn is 93% seeded with soybeans at 75%, both ahead of normal and looking good. Spring wheat is 91% seeded, behind average. North Dakota is the laggard at 85%.    There were 19 mln acres of prevent plant overall between all American crops last year and this year it will probably be under 5 mln. China Flexing Trade Muscle    China has instructed its companies to stop importing American soybeans and pork in retaliation for American support for Hong Kong. It appears that food demand has fallen drastically in China as restaurants have been closed for some time. This is a confused situation with soybean orders apparently still being booked. Futures Little Changed    There were only marginal changes in grain futures over the past week.    Canola is down a hair with beanoil mildly higher.    The American dollar has been losing ground rapidly over the past two weeks which is making US beans more competitive, including against Brazil. Soymeal demand is falling off with the distressed livestock industry. Futures are at contract lows.    Minneapolis wheat lost 2 cents on the week. Planting is lagging in North Dakota as the ground remains wet. Funds have a record short position. Kansas is higher on heat and dryness in the western Plains. Russian wheat is discounted to most other exporters although they must be close to being sold out.    Corn is up 5 cents on the week, buoyed by the highest crude oil and ethanol prices since March. Crude oil closed at $36.50/barrel today. Weather looks good for the early planted American corn crop. Funds are short.
0.12 0.09 0.14 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.22 0.05 0.13 0.09 MGEX Wht Options Jul 5.17 Calls Puts 5.10 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.10 9.20 0.83 CBOT Wht Options Jul 5.08 Calls Puts 4.95 0.26 0.06 5.00 8.80 0.46 9.00 0.60 0.27 8.40 0.24 8.60 0.34 0.34 Puts Soybean Options Nov 8.61 Puts 8.00 0.11 8.20 0.16 Calls 0.34 0.24 0.18 0.13 0.09 8.70 8.80 0.06 0.03 8.40 485. Canola Options Nov 467.10 8.20 465. 470. 475. 480. 8.00 24.60 11.40 11.30 14.20 9.50 17.40 455. Calls Puts 19.00 6.90 0.30 470. 1.90 12.10 0.23 475. 1.20 16.40 20.90 6.70 0.17 460. 4.80 5.00 0.12 465. 3.00 8.20 8.50 8.60 Calls 7.70 2.90 0.08 1.50 460. 8.30 16.10 9.00 13.50 Puts Canola Options Corn Options Jul 459.80 Jul 3.24 Soybean Options Jul 8.51 Calls Puts Calls 5.35 0.06 - 0.17 3.40 0.02 0.18 5.25 0.07 0.19 5.30 5.20 0.07 0.21 3.35 0.03 0.14 3.30 0.05 0.10 5.20 0.17 3.25 0.07 0.07 5.25 5.15 5.15 5.05 0.14 0.44 3.20 0.09 0.05 0.11 5.00 0.17 0.08 0.52 3.15 0.13 0.03 4.90 0.29 0.03 0.66 3.10 0.16 0.02 0.03 0.05 445. 15.60 0.80 450. 11.30 455. Back to Top
Sell Canola - Jerry Klassen    Western Canadian canola prices have been under pressure over the past week for five main reasons. Seeding is basically wrapped up and recent rains have enhanced crop prospects.    Producer selling tends to increase in June and July. This selling comes at a time when export and domestic demand is at a seasonal low. Domestic crushers take their downtime for maintenance and upgrades during the summer months.    Last Wednesday’s court ruling that the extradition hearing for Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou will proceed has angered the Chinese government. Canola crop year-to-date canola exports to China to March 31 were 1.2 million mt, down from 2.9 million last year. Ideas are that China could put additional constraints on Canadian exports.    Exports to Europe are up sharply over last year due to their lower rapeseed crop in 2019. The European winter rapeseed harvest is right around the corner and is expected to be marginally higher than last year.    The U.S. soybean crop is also developing under optimal conditions which is weighing on the overall oilseed complex.    Wild Oats is 80% sold on the 2019 crop. Now that the new crop is growing across most of the prairies we’re finishing up. Sell the final 20% increment of your 2019 canola. Milling Wheat Update    Wild Oats is 80% sold on the 2019 milling wheat crop. Seeding is wrapping up in Western Canada and North Dakota.    The spring wheat crop is in good shape on both sides of the border at this time; however, it is still early in the growing season. The U.S. winter wheat crop is lagging normal development by two to three weeks. Harvest in the U.S. Southern Plains will be in full force by mid June.    It’s important to remember that U.S. winter wheat farmers sell 50% of the crop during the summer months.    The Russian and European winter wheat harvest will move into high gear during July. Currently, Russian wheat values fob the Black Sea are a US$20/mt discount to U.S. hard red winter wheat offers out of the Gulf.    Over the past week, the Kansas winter wheat futures have incorporated a risk premium due to decreasing crop estimates in Russia and Europe. This has been supportive for the Minneapolis futures.    We consider the last 20% increment as gambling stocks for the wheat. We all remember the rally that occurred in 2017 when dryer conditions plagued the U.S. Northern Plains and crop conditions deteriorated. However, once we got into harvest, traders realized the crop was better than anticipated.    The speculative funds still have a large short position in Minneapolis so this market is vulnerable to a short covering rally. Sometimes, we can see the Minneapolis futures divorce from the winter wheat markets at this time if dryer conditions materialize in Canada and the U.S.    Wild Oats is planning to make its final sale over the next few weeks depending on weather forecasts. We advise farmers to get caught up to 80% sold if you’re not at this level.
Back to Top Back to Top
Canadian Pulse and Special Crops S&D AgCanada: May 22, 2020 Production Supply Export Domestic Carry Peas Use Out 2017 4,112 4,424 3,083 693 648 2018 3,581 4,291 3,268  711 312 2019f 4,237 4,621 3,650  671 300 2020f 4,275 4,635 3,400 760 475 Lentils 2017 2,559 2,908 1,537 498  873 2018 2,092 3,016 2,032 353  631 2019f 2,167 2 883 2,200 383 300 2020f 2,150 2,500 2,000 350 150 Chickpeas 2017 102 151 116 21 13 2018 311 377 147 129 100 2019f 252 404 125 139 140 2020f 170 360 125 135 100 Mustard 2017 122 211 112 45 53 2018 174 235 121 42 73 2019f 135 214 115 44 55 2020f 140 203 115 43 45 Canary 2017 145 165 147 2 16 2018 158 174 156 7 11 2019f 148 158 158 0 0 2020f 145 145 145 0 0 Units in 1,000 mt    AgCanada's May S&D incorporates StatsCan's May stocks report.    Pea exports are flying out the door with Chinese fractionators the biggest customer. Production is forecast to rise modestly this year and the carryover rising.    Lentil exports are booming this year. Carryover stocks are shrinking as the Canadian crop gets used.    Chickpea production will shrink this year. Carryout stocks are shrinking but remain burdensome.    Mustard supply is falling. Exports are steady. The carryover is coming down.    Canary stocks are getting used up. Plantings will presumably increase this year but stocks are tight.   Seeding Progressing    Western Canadian seeding is probably at 90%.