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Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory

     A market is a process of price discovery. You want to know the most buyers will pay. Buyers want to know the least that will persuade farmers to put adequate supplies on the market.
     In any market, including our grain markets, those with the most information will do better, over time. Maybe the lucky will hit it right now and then, and have something to boast about. But those who methodically accumulate information will always tend to do better, as they deserve.

An easier, less expensive way to get real information

     If I offered you an opportunity to drive 50 miles once a week to buy coffee and listen to two experts with different sources of true information about the market, you would be wise to take me up on this offer. It would cost you 100 miles of driving expenses [maybe $40], plus a couple of bucks for the coffee, and three hours of your time which is an important expense. But it could pay off.
     I have a much better offer:

  • same two experts, with different sources of information about grain and oilseed markets

  • weekly updates

  • and the cost is only $5.70 a week, plus less of your time -- maybe half an hour per week and you donít have to interrupt combining.
     Big saving. Same value. [Oh yes, your coffee at home costs maybe only 25 cents a cup.]
     The two experts are Jerry Klassen, a veteran of the Canadian grain trade and an independent futures trader and John Duvenaud with a first rate handle on the pulse and special crops markets.

     Our offer is for the market newsletter Wild Oats.

How good is the information?

     Examine a recent issue so you can see for yourself. Itís organized so you can find what you need fast, and understand what youíre getting.

  1. The front page gives you the biggest news items, in brief. Short articles. The headlines tell you which ones concern crops you grow.

  2. The next page starts with Jerry Klassenís latest and best information. He writes this Tuesday afternoon, after the markets close. Most of our subscribers look it over Tuesday evening. Jerry Klassen goes out on a limb and advises selling or holding each crop, and makes sure you understand why his advice is that way.
         Also on page 2, John Duvenaudís analysis. Likewise, he doesnít just give you a lot of words about trends, but sticks his neck out with specific advice.

  3. On page 3, the futures and options you need to make your own decisions. We donít assume, by the way, that all our readers use futures, and we make sure our advice can be used without them.
         At the bottom of the page, a chart shows Wild Oats cumulative selling recommendations to date. In past years, farmers who have moved on Wild Oats calls have done a lot better on average than farmers who operate without good information.

  4. On the final page of each regular issue are the latest buying prices for grains, oilseeds and special crops. Prices vary across the Prairies, so we compile Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba reports.
         Page 4 also gives you a few comments picked up on the trading on the ICI Futures Canada Exchange.
     Itís all valuable information. You might get it yourself by spending enough time on the phone. Itís easier and less expensive to get it with a subscription to Wild Oats.

Mail. Fax. Satellite. Internet.
How do you want to receive Wild Oats?

     The faster the better perhaps? A one year subscription to Wild Oats costs $295. Here are the delivery options:

Mail subscriptions: There are 40 issues, mailed first class in a business envelope.

Fax subscriptions: Faxes arrive about suppertime on Tuesdays, and we publish a one page fax supplement on the weeks we donít publish a regular issue.

Internet subscriptions: You get all the regular issues, plus the supplements, same day.

Satellite subscriptions: Wild Oats is available as a premium service on the DTN system.

40 reports a year

     Most grain, oilseed and special crop market moves are slow and gradual, reflecting crop development and the pace of usage. It's true that markets sometimes make big, sudden moves, but usually these happen so fast that even floor traders on the futures exchanges canít profit.
     Too much information can be confusing. Daily price moves are often just noise in the market. Wild Oats is timed to keep you up to date on the big picture, without flooding you with details.

Look at our record

     Wild Oats recommends sales through the crop year of the various crops we grow on the prairies - canola, lentils, peas, mustard, canary, flax, feed wheat and barley, oats and chickpeas. We also cover CWB wheat marketing with recommendations on Basis and Fixed Price Contracts.
     Edible beans and sunflowers are included in our coverage although neither lend themselves to the marketing timing of our main crops.
     We try to make sales when markets rally and to avoid sales on dips. Regardless, we recognize that part of the business of farming is converting your crops to cash and that you can't hold forever, even if prices are poor. We generally start sales when the crop starts to come off. We sell aggressively when prices are good, or when the fundamental outlook is bleak. We hold back sales when prices are poor, or when fundamentals suggest higher prices down the road.
     Wild Oats doesn't make many sales before the crop is in the bin. We recognize that forward selling can be appropriate and occasionally do make these sales, but only when market signals warrant.
     In every case Wild Oats finishes crop sales within the crop year. That simple strategy has made a lot of money for subscribers over the years.

You can manage better

     Already you probably have pretty good programs to keep your expenses under control. You likely know how to push yields and produce quality.
     The better you are at farming, the more you need to be an informed marketer.
     If you have only a few thousand bushels to sell every year, I can see that you wouldnít want to spend even twenty minutes a week adding to your information about what the markets are doing. But as soon as your production mounts to a substantial figure, the payoff from even a small improvement in your marketing results can be major. Serious money.
     With Wild Oats youíll watch for signals to speed up or slow down sales, or to shift seeded acres between crops. Sometimes even a small piece of information can make difference between a profit and a loss.
     You can never tell when favourable selling opportunities will arise. It may be in the middle of a period thatís been dull. If you know about it, sometimes you can move a lot of crop at a good price.
     When you decide to make a sale, youíll have the numbers you need to start dealing. Don't ever let buyers know more than you do.
     You can keep informed with Wild Oats for just $5.70 and 20 minutes a week.
     Winning at the markets is a cumulative process. Every win builds your financial strength. Better yet, you carry that win into your next marketing decision.

How to do the best with your production

     Subscribe to Wild Oats.
     Read Wild Oats even if you have another information service, and itís good. You canít have too many viewpoints on the markets.
     Itís easy. Just complete and submit an order form or phone us at 1-800-567-5671 or 1-204-942-1459. Choose how youíll take it. We'll start your subscription the day we hear from you.

Contents | Sample Issue | Subscribe | Canadagrain
If you have any questions regarding the Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory please feel free to send us an e-mail.

Last Modified: August 31, 2009
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