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Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory
Wild Oats Publishing
Site Created August 15, 1996;  Last Updated February 07, 2017
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   Wild Oats is published 40 times per year by Wild Oats Publishing, 958 - 167 Lombard Avenue, Winnipeg R3B 0V3. Tel. (204) 942-1459 Fax (204) 942-7652 E-mail: wildoats@canadagrain.com    Information is secured from sources believed reliable, but 100% accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Persons associated with Wild Oats deal commercially with businesses active in Prairie grain markets and may hold positions on their own accounts in commodities discussed herein. ISSN 1185-2194    Copyright 2014. All rights reserved. The Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory is protected by copyright. Copying, retransmission or redistribution, in whole or in part, without the prior written approval of Wild Oats Publishing is strictly prohibited.
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Canola Deliveries Surge - Jerry Klassen    We've seen good harvest progress over the past couple weeks. For the week ending September 18, canola deliveries reached 651,000 mt, up from a meager 345,000 mt a week earlier. The surge in farmer selling has capped significant gains but the market has been able to absorb the larger supplies fairly easily. Secondly, the market is probably trading a crop size in the range of 19.0 to 20.0 million mt, instead of 21 to 23 million mt as some traders suggested earlier in September.    The domestic crush pace has come on stream reaching a record 190,000 mt for the week ending September 21.    Exports seasonally increase in October through December as well so the market needs to maintain the large deliveries moving forward. Once harvest moves into the final stages, we're not going to see the selling pressure.    Adverse rains have tempered U.S. soybean harvest progress and if this continues over the next month, there will be an effect on yields. At the same time, we're expecting stronger world vegetable oil values in the final quarter of 2016. The soybean complex is probably in the process of making seasonal lows. Similar to canola, the soybean market will have some breathing room to edge higher once harvest wraps up. Secondly, the U.S. needs to carry China and the world on soybeans until the South American harvest comes on stream in March of 2017. A year-over-year increase in demand will be supportive for the soybeans and spillover into canola.    We have a positive bias on canola so our strategy is to be patient on additional sales. Barley Market Softens    The barley market continues to trend lower due to the abundance of alternate feed grains. Feedlots in Southern Alberta were buying feed barley in the range of $150/mt to $155/mt delivered; end users in Central Alberta were quoting prices from $121/mt to $141/mt while average Saskatchewan elevator bids were near $116.    The barley and wheat harvests are slowly advancing resulting in aggressive farmer selling. Feed durum is trading near $145/mt in Southern Alberta while non durum feed wheat is closer to $155/mt. Grain companies do not have offshore sales on for low quality wheat so farmers looking to sell have to trade into the domestic market.    Cattle on feed inventories in Alberta and Saskatchewan are coming off seasonal lows but domestic demand will only increase later in December.    Prices in Saskatchewan at $116/mt equates to US$153/mt fob the West Coast. However, Vancouver fobbing capacity is full until late November. Ukraine barley is also trading at US$153/mt fob the Black Sea. Russian and Ukraine supplies have dominated the world market due to the year-over-year increase in production. Australia is also expected to increase this year so competition remains strong on the world market.    China has imposed anti dumping duties on US DDGs which is negative for the Canadian domestic feed grain complex. The US corn harvest has been delayed but this could push US DDGs into major feeding regions of Western Canada later in fall and winter.
Harvest Catching Up    Except in the north of Alberta which is struggling with rain, rain, rain. The south is about at a normal pace. Saskatchewan has caught up to a normal harvest pace. Manitoba is pretty much cleaned up except for corn, soybeans and sunflowers which comprise 20% of total acreage. Soybeans are moving fast with corn just getting started.
Volume 27 Number 08 September 27, 2016
Feeding Industry Hurting    Alberta cattle prices are down 30% from a year ago and Western Feedlots, with a capacity of 100,000 feeders, one of Canada's largest cattle feeders, will be closing the doors after its current inventory is fed out. This will take out a significant amount of demand for feeder cattle. The owners cite the high-risk, low-return environment in cattle ownership.    Alberta fed steers trade around $1.25/lb, falling about 30% from a year ago. Cheap pork is not helping the beef trade. Futures Mostly Lower    Most futures are lower with Minneapolis wheat the only winner on the week, up 20 cents. Quality problems, the worst being fusarium, have significantly cut supplies of milling quality spring wheat. Kansas and Chicago are little changed.    Soybeans and beanoil are solidly lower but canola is only off $4/t. American soybean harvest is at 10%, a bit behind average. Excess rains are hurting crops in the Midwest but most will eventually be harvested. The arrival of new crop soybeans is pressuring prices and this will only get worse.    Meal is easier as DDG's and fed wheat are pricing soymeal out of rations.      Canola is lower following global vegoils. The Canadian dollar is mildly weaker and that is providing some support.    Corn is down 10 cents/bu on the week. Disappointing early American corn yields are supportive but this will still be a record harvest. Final acreage numbers will probably rise modestly as the amount of prevent-plant acres is down from last year.    Corn futures are holding up well but harvest is still in the early stages. Expect price pressure as storage fills up.          China imposed import tariffs on DDG's last week but ethanol profits are good so demand should be little changed.
Global Wheat Supplies Massive, Quality Lacking    Western Canada, like the rest of the world, is harvesting a larger wheat crop than last year but quality is a big issue. Global wheat production will be a record for the fourth year.    Quality, however, is another matter. There's lots of feed wheat and that's especially the case right here. Fusarium is our big issue and it may render as much as half the Canadian durum crop feed grain.    North Dakota wheat quality may be worse. A third of the durum won't make milling grade. Fifteen percent has no vomi, 15% has 1 - 2ppm vomi, a third has over 3ppm and another third has 7+ppm. The Montana crop is clean.    Russia has had lots of rain through harvest. Their wheat has low falling numbers and sprout. Western Europe had a disastrous year, quality-wise. They’re moving lw-quality wheat for whatever they can get. Australia had a frost last week so they will be certain to have quality issues.    Good quality milling wheat is still in the process of finding its level. Tough Harvest    It's impressive how prairie farmers have taken off so much crop in the face of continual rains. There are lots of rutted fields but it looks like the bulk of the crop will eventually come off.    American corn harvest progress is close to normal - 15% compared to the average of 19% - but quality is being affected by excess rain. There is flooding in parts of Iowa. Harvested corn has ear and stock rot, mold and sprouting. Pea Prices Stabilizing    Pea prices have had a dramatic drop, certainly on the yellow side, but prices are stabilizing. The average price of yellows in Saskatchewan peaked at $12.50/bu in May before falling methodically to about $6.60 in early September. They're flat now at about that level. Greens fell from $9/bu to $7.25 and, again, appear to have stabilized.
Sell Flax - John Duvenaud    Flax harvest is underway. There are few quality problems and yields seem OK. Quality varies but is better than last year. In 2015, if you recall, we had a rainy harvest with lots of wetting and drying, cracked seed coats and blackened seeds. That's commodity flax, at best.    The western Canadian flax market has changed over the past few years. It used to be that SaskPool and UGG would have a standing bid on flax and you could deliver at any time. Now elevators don't accumulate flax until they have an export order to fill. This makes sense, especially with their flax inventories being unhedgeable. Price patterns have also changed. It used to be that prices would drop during our harvest, recover mildly post-harvest, rally mildly in January as end- users replenished their stocks and continue to improve right up to the start of harvest. Now the seasonal rally is in April/May as exporters load up for the opening of the Seaway.     The other big change in flax markets was the arrival of Kazakhstan as a serious competitor. Eastern European and Kazakh flax now supply our traditional European flax markets.    Canadian flax exports took a big hit last year. They were over 700,000 tonnes in 2014 but fell to under 400,000 last year, and that's on bigger supplies.    We might have had our last "traditional" sized flax crop in 2015. This year seedings were cut by 44%, down to 925,000 acres. Plantings had been generally been above 1.5 mln acres. Plantings were down because farmers could forward- contract peas and lentils at historically high prices. Also, in April canola and flax were trading at even money. Traditionally, according to Prairie Crop Charts, flax trades at about 115% the value of canola    The 2016 Canadian crop will probably be about 575,000 tonnes, the smallest in decades. Total Canadian flax supplies, however, will be even higher than they were a year ago because of the massive 476,000 tonne carryin, up from under 100,000 in August, 2015. Total supplies after harvest will be 1.06 mln tonnes, up from 1.05 a year ago.    Demand continues to grow, not on the linseed side but rather on the health side and here the biggest user continues to be the petfood industry. This is the market that elevators cater to. Human- edible flax is the specialty market handled by quality-conscious domestic processors. These are the higher-priced buyers and you should find $12/bu delivered. Don't expect to call and deliver to these buyers. They'll need a sample to determine precisely what you have because they're probably buying for different customers with specific standards.    Elevators are mostly around $11/bu, if they're buying at all. Manitoba terminals aren't even buying flax in most cases. They're concentrating on soybeans. Expect to wait until late October, or, more likely, November before they start taking flax.    Sell the second 20% increment of your 2016 flax, taking sales to 40%. Buyers expect prices to drop modestly through fall. North Dakota flax prices have dropped $1.35/bu since early August.
Manitoba Farmgate Prices    Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of September 27, 2016. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Nov at $466  Del Elevator 15 - 44 422 - 451 9.57 - 10.22  Bunge (del)    Altona: $10.11 - 10.22 (Sep/Oct); $10.29 (Nov); $10.46 (Dec)    Harrowby: $9.84 (Sep/Oct); $10.05 (Nov); $10.25 (Dec)  Nexera $11.29 - 11.47 (Sep/Oct); $11.29 - 11.53 (Nov); $11.57 - 11.79 (Jan) Barley  Del Elevator 126 - 128 2.75 - 2.79  Malt Del Elevator 207 - 218 4.50 - 4.75 Wheat  Feed Del Elevator 138 - 169 3.75 - 4.60   Feed FOB Farm 147 - 158 4.00 - 4.30  Milling Wheat (Del Elev)     CWRW #2 146 - 159 3.96 - 4.33     CWRS #1 199 - 217 5.41 - 5.91     CWRS #2 200 - 213 5.43 - 5.79 Flax $11.00 - 11.50; $11.00 del Oats   $2.00 - 2.45 FOB Farm; $2.25 - 2.64 del Corn  $3.67 - 4.00 del Soybeans  $9.97 - 11.12 del Lentils  Lairds: #1: 50¢; 42 - 51¢ del; #2: 45¢; 40 - 50¢ del; X3: 27 - 40¢ del   #3: 25 - 37¢ del  Eston: #1: 36 - 41¢; 37 - 43¢ del; #2: 30 - 40¢ del; X3: 26 - 35¢ del   #3: 22.5 - 24¢ del Sk  Richlea: #1: 38 - 40¢; 37 - 48¢ del; #2: 34 - 38¢; 34 - 41¢ del; X3: 25 - 38¢ del   #3: 25 - 36¢ del  Crimson: #2+: 28 - 30¢; 24 - 30¢ del; X3: 21 - 26¢ del; #3: 17 - 18¢ del Canary Seed  21 - 23¢; 21 - 22¢ del Sunflower  Oil: 26¢ del; Conf: 26¢ del Peas  Green: $8.00; $6.80 - 7.50 del; Yellow: $6.00 - 7.25 del Sk  Feed: $5.00 - 6.00; $5.50 del Mustard  Yellow: 27 - 28¢; 27.5 - 29¢ del; Brown: 28 - 31¢; 28 - 30¢ del  Oriental: 24 - 30¢; 24.5 - 26¢ del Delivered North Dakota Plant/Elevator - $US/bu [$Cnd/bu in brackets] DNS [14%]: $3.69 - 4.38 [$4.87 - 5.79] Durum: $5.00 - 6.25 [$6.60 - 8.26] Oats: $1.50 - 2.00 [$1.98 - 2.64] Flax: $7.10 - 8.25 [$9.38 - 10.90] Corn: $2.37 - 2.74 [$3.13 - 3.62] Barley Feed: $1.60 - 2.15 [$2.11 - 2.84] Malt: $3.41 - 3.51 [$4.50 - 4.64] Soybeans: $8.63 - 8.77 [$11.40 - 11.58] Canola: $7.12 - 7.97 [$9.40 - 10.52] Peas Yellow: $4.40 - 5.75 [$5.81 - 7.59] Green: $4.65 - 5.50 [$6.14 - 7.27] Sunflwr NuSun: 15.4 - 17.7¢ [20.3 - 23.3¢] Pinto: 28.0 - 30.0¢ [37.0 - 39.6¢] Navy: 30.0¢ [39.6¢] Black: 31.0 - 32.0¢ [40.9 - 42.3¢] Kidney Drk Red: not quoted Kidney Lght Red: 32.0 - 34.0¢ [42.3 - 44.9¢] Saskatchewan Farmgate Prices    Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of September 27, 2016. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Nov at $466  Del Elevator 33 - 50 416 - 433 9.43 - 9.81  Bunge (del)   Nipawin: not quoted   Dixon: not quoted  Nexera $10.77 - 11.09 (Sep); $10.80 - 11.21 (Oct); $10.89 - 11.30 (Nov) Barley  Feed Del Elevator 115 - 133 2.50 - 2.90   FOB Farm (Depends on Vomi) 108 - 149 2.35 - 3.25  Malt Fall Del Elev 209 - 232 4.55 - 5.05 Wheat  Feed Del Elevator 145 - 175 3.94 - 4.75   FOB Farm 110 - 158 3.00 - 4.30  Milling (Del Elevator)  CWRW #2 141 - 151 3.85 - 4.10  CWRS #1 191 - 223 5.19 - 6.07  CPRS #1 147 - 160 3.99 - 4.36  Durum #1 227 - 271 6.17 - 7.37   FOB Farm 237 - 276 6.45 - 7.50 Flax  $10.75 del; New: $11.00 - 11.50 Oats  $1.80 - 2.15; $1.99 - 2.42 del Lentils   Laird #1: 50¢; 42 - 51¢ del; #2: 45¢; 40 - 50¢ del; X3: 27 - 40¢ del   #3: 25 - 37¢ del  Eston: #1: 36 - 41¢; 37 - 43¢ del; #2: 30 - 40¢ del; X3: 26 - 35¢ del   #3: 22.5 - 24¢ del  Richlea: #1: 38 - 40¢; 37 - 48¢ del; #2: 34 - 38¢; 34 - 41¢ del; X3: 25 - 38¢ del   #3: 25 - 36¢ del  Crimson: #2+: 28 - 30¢; 24 - 30¢ del; X3: 24 - 26¢ del; #3: 17 - 18¢ del Canary Seed    21 - 23¢; 21 - 22¢ del Sunflower  Oil: 26¢ del; Conf: 26¢ del Peas  Green: $8.00; $6.80 - 7.50 del; Yellow: $6.00 - 7.25 del  Feed Peas: $5.00 - 6.00; $3.40 - 6.35 del Chickpeas  Desi #1: 30 - 35¢; 29.5 - 31¢ del; Kabuli 10mm: 50 - 54¢; 48 - 53¢ del Mustard   Yellow: 27 - 28¢; 27.5 - 29¢ del; Brown: 28 - 31¢; 28 - 30¢ del  Oriental: 24 - 30¢; 24.5 - 26¢ del Alberta Farmgate Prices    Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of September 27, 2016. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Nov at $466   Del Elevator 27 - 46 419 - 439 9.51 - 9.95   Bunge 32 433 9.83  Nexera  $10.83 - 11.03 (Sep/Oct); $10.79 - 11.03 (Nov); $11.03 - 11.19 (Jan) Barley  Feed Del Elevator 117 - 160 2.55 - 3.48   Lethbridge 160 3.48   Vermillion 142 - 160 3.09 - 3.48   Rycroft 115 - 126 2.50 - 2.75 Wheat  Feed Del Elevator 140 - 195 3.80 - 5.31   Lethbridge 180 - 195 4.90 - 5.31   Red Deer 175 - 195 4.76 - 5.31  Milling (Del Elev)   CWRW 144 - 154 3.91 - 4.18   CWRS #1 203 - 232 5.53 - 6.32   CPRS #1 150 - 168 4.08 - 4.57   Durum 241 - 277 6.57 - 7.54 Oats  Del Elevator 130 - 175 2.00 - 2.70   Lethbridge 149 - 175 2.30 - 2.70 Flax  Not quoted Lentils  Laird:#1: 50¢; 42 - 51¢ del Sk; #2: 45¢; 40 - 50¢ del Sk   X3: 27 - 40¢ del Sk; #3: 25 - 37¢ del Sk  Eston: #1: 36 - 41¢; 37 - 43¢ del Sk; #2: 30 - 40¢ del Sk; X3: 26 - 35¢ del   #3: 22.5 - 24¢ del Sk  Richlea: #1: 38 - 40¢; 37 - 48¢ del Sk; #2: 34 - 38¢; 34 - 41¢ del Sk   X3: 25 - 38¢ del Sk; #3: 25 - 36¢ del Sk  Crimson: #2+: 28 - 30¢; 24 - 30¢ del Sk; X3: 21 - 26¢ del Sk   #3: 17 - 18¢ del Sk Canary Seed  21 - 23¢; 21 - 22¢ del Sk Peas  Green: $8.00 FOB Farm Sk; $6.80 - 7.50 del  Yellow: $6.00 - 7.25 del  Feed: $5.44 - 7.08 del Chick Peas  Desi: #1: 29.5 - 31¢ del Sk  Kabuli: 10mm 48 - 53¢ del Sk Mustard  Yellow: 27 - 28¢; 27.5 - 29¢ del Sk  Brown: 28 - 31¢; 28 - 30¢ del Sk  Oriental: 24 - 30¢; 24.5 - 26¢ del Sk Delivered Montana Elevator - $US/bu [ $Cnd/bu in brackets ] DNS [14%]:  $3.80 - 4.67 [$5.02 - 6.17] Durum: $5.40 - 5.75 [$7.13 - 7.60] HRW [13%]:  $3.23 - 4.20 [$4.27 - 5.55]     Barley Feed:  $2.04 - 2.28 [$2.70 - 3.01] Malt: $3.36 [$4.44] Delivered Colorado Plant/Elevator - US¢/lb [ $Cdn/lb in brackets ] Pinto: 30.0¢ [39.6¢]; Kidney Light Red: 32.0¢ [42.3¢] Great Northern: 30.0¢ [39.6¢]
From the Floor Opinion derived from traders    Railroads have been pushing around the city of Winnipeg from the day CP arrived. CN's first station was built right in the center of town, blocking Broadway, the first surveyed street in western Canada.    Today, both CN and CP still run their transcontinental trains through the middle of Winnipeg. So what if it’s only a matter of building a few miles of track going around the city; their choice is to make thousands of Winnipeg commuters sit for ten minutes every second day while a 170-car train passes through.    Winnipeg has spent, and is spending, hundreds of millions of dollars on overpasses because the railroads won’t build a few miles of track around the city.    Running railroads through cities is old technology.    If the city of Winnipeg would allow commercial development on the CP and CN yards, and why wouldn’t they, both railroads would make huge money by moving out of town. Street Smart - Veena Sharma    The lower tax will improve the supply and check price rise.    Veena Sharma, secretary of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, on the reduction of the wheat import tax from 25% to 10%.
Back to Top Back to Top Back to Top Back to Top . . . 0.4 ## 8 1 0.1 0.5 9.60 3.50 3.60 11.50 0.10 9.20 9.40 0.79 9.30 0.33 Mar 478.40 Nov 9.53 450. 36.80 8.40 Puts 0.05 440. 450. 26.70 1.10 18.10 2.50 460. 29.90 0.02 3.80 0.29 Puts Calls 0.06 4.00 0.16 0.03 3.90 0.22 0.10 4.10 3.30 0.12 0.32 0.65 0.16 4.20 0.53 3.40 0.08 0.09 0.25 0.05 Puts Calls 9.20 0.40 0.07 9.00 0.83 0.18 3.00 0.34 0.70 0.25 3.10 0.25 3.20 0.18 0.47 0.42 0.38 0.30 0.58 0.33 0.29 10.00 0.23 9.80 Corn Options Wheat Options Nov 465.60 0.08 0.36 10.20 0.24 8.80 40.40 9.80 Canola Options Canola Options Soybean Optons Soybean Optons Mar 9.65 Dec 3.32 Dec 4.04 Calls Puts Calls Puts Calls Puts Calls 0.08 460. 10.90 5.30 470. 23.90 15.50 9.40 0.26 0.14 0.12 470. 5.80 10.20 480. 18.80 20.40 9.50 0.20 0.18 0.12 0.18 480. 2.70 17.10 490. 14.70 26.30 9.60 0.16 0.12 490. 1.20 25.60 500. 0.23 4.30 0.06 500. 0.50 34.90 510. 11.40 33.00 9.70 0.40 0.03 0.31 4.40 0.04 [*Futures for September 27, 2016. Change since September 20, 2016] n.c. 223 135 Dec 132.50 -2.50 25 259 Barley Oct 132.50 -2.50 200 -50 222 135 Durum 202 Mar 224.00 +3.00 0 n.c. 259 256 4.32 +0.17 3525 6.08 5.10 3.96 45114 5.60 4.13 5.80 4.36 +0.01 202 Milling Wht Oct 215.00 +3.00 256 210 219.00 Wheat Dec 4.19 n.c. 139969 HRW Mar 5.95 Open Hi Int. -4182 Chng* 4.96 HRS Mar 5.11 +0.10 16000 +346 Hi Low Wheat Dec 5.03 +0.12 28830 -1423 5.96 4.97 23340 5.70 Jul 4.56 +0.11 +5406 -1379 +83 Hi Low Dec 103.13 103.13 103.83 262 +4984 4.53 3.26 +3022 413.8 268.7 Minneapolis Grain Exchange Close Chng* Open Chng* Contract Int. 0 n.c. 355 0 405 266 Jul 5.27 Mar 286.00 +6.00 Contract Contract Open Int. +20 2.43 1.84 n.c. 2.44 1.97 Chng* 103.83 -3.85 51.50 -3.93 117908 +11449 125.50 -3.85 32969 69.17 Jun 75.83 +0.01 264 +18 79.89 71.54 +0.08 1214 46.28 Dec 75.71 -0.01 99142 +8355 79.70 68.57 +9163 67.33 +297 79.88 -17730 132.85 -7860 74.80 Chicago Merchantile Exchange Chng* Open Int. Close Jul 1.98 -0.01 26 Mar 1.85 -0.02 1931 +1772 5.87 4.33 Dec 1.75 n.c. 8748 +3 2.44 1.73 Jul 4.49 -0.01 34300 +3628 5.83 3.92 Mar 4.26 -0.01 90551 +628 5.69 4.15 Dec 4.04 -0.02 306710 Jul 3.56 -0.08 114189 Mar 3.42 -0.09 241880 3.41 -1486 4.47 3.16 42481 762249 +2036 4.57 Dec 3.32 -0.09 -12824 299.3 -13.8 22712 Jan 300.8 -13.0 +5074 418.7 267.2 Oct Dec 299.6 -13.6 170919 30.00 224056 +24338 418.7 265.3 35.81 Close 29.75 Jan 33.59 -0.72 51918 +4288 35.78 Live Cattle Oct Low Chng* Kansas City Board of Trade Contract Chicago Board of Trade Soybeans Chng* Hi Low 11.63 Mar 9.65 -0.33 68359 Nov 9.53 -0.37 Open 11008 -280 536 449 31364 +2155 Hi Low Dec 279.00 +4.00 +1763 10237 +883 n.c. 0 n.c. 8334 405 +3.00 Oct 280.00 +6.00 0 0 n.c. n.c. Jul 486.60 Dec -6.90 -4.90 May 483.50 -5.70 Soybean Canola Nov 465.60 541 463 537 458 -4.10 Mar 130300 Int. 534 443 -4349 529 424 478.40 Winnipeg Grain Exchange Close Chng* Chng* Contract Corn Oil Soybean Meal Jan 473.10 -3.50 Wheat Oats 46.45 75.76 41471 -2.63 122526 51.70 Lean Hogs Dec Mar Dollar Oct Canadian Close Chng* 8.50 Jan 9.59 -0.36 102376 +5410 11.63 8.65 340606 -12009 27.92 Jul 9.76 -0.31 50666 20630 -13147 35.67 Oct 33.12 8.76 +2924 11.13 8.85 +463 11.36 -0.71 Dec 33.35 -0.74 Back to Top