Sample Issue
Ray Garnett Climate Letter
Volume 1, Number 1 July 29, 2005
Current Conditions
US Corn and Beans
The Midwest drought is starting to feed on itself. The dry surface works against rain. There is no moisture to be convected into the atmosphere.
There were stabilizing rains this week but amounts were insufficient to turn crop prospects around. U.S. corn crop yield is forecast at 135 - 140 bu/ac compared to the trend of 146 bu/ac. Corn crop conditions are worst in Illinois. At July 24 corn crops rated good to excellent: Nebraska 75%, Minnesota 71%, Iowa 67%, Ohio 47%. Indiana 46% and Illinois 13%. Overall American corn is 53% good/excellent. That's down 2% from last week and down a whopping 24% from last year. It's the worst cornbelt drought since 1988. 20% of Illinois will have yields of 50 bu/ac. Ear weights are low. Crops in dryland Nebraska are 4 feet high.
What's Next
The eastern cornbelt is likely to stay dry for the next few days because of a surface high pressure over the area.
After August 8 there won't be any improvement to the corn crop, even with rain. The critical period for soybeans is just beginning and will last until the end of August.
Canadian Canola and Spring Wheat
June precipitation was 197% of normal in 2005. This is the wettest June for the 1950-2005 period. Rainfall exceeded normal by 3 standard deviations. As of July 17 prairie rainfall has been 111% of normal. These excessive rains are expected to support record level grain yields and low protein content. About 3% of prairie cropland has been drowned out.
Climatology
The excessive rains in the prairies are the result of several factors - low sunspot activity, less than normal North American snow cover, a revival of the weak El Nino that caused the mild winter of 2004/05 and warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska has helped sustain a trough on the North American west coast which is a favorable long wave position for the Canadian prairies. However this troughing has tended to create a ridge over the Great Lakes region which has mitigated against rainfall in much of the central U.S. Corn Belt since June 1st.
What's Next
In recent days a moderate ridge has developed over the Canadian prairies, indicative of dry weather over the next few days. This is the first time since June 1st that any ridge development has been apparent. Ridging on the west coast is typically a dry pattern for the Canadian prairies.
Global Crop Conditions
Europe
Spain is in drought and the crop year is over. Wheat losses were over 3 million tonnes. Barley lost 4 million tonnes.
Germany and France have good crops.
FSU
Russia has an excellent winter grain crop. Ukraine is slightly below average. Kazakhstan is good.
China
China is on the dry side. Irrigated crops are fine.
India
The monsoon is spot-on normal.
Created: July 26, 2005
Last Modified: July 28, 2005
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