This is a summary of what subscribers can expect in each issue of the Canadian Feedlot and Cattle Market Analysis. Each issue also includes tables and charts of the data showing projections and influence on the beef or cattle markets.
1) Feedlot Margin Structure
This section covers current margins for feedlots for cattle being sold. We also look at the forward margins given current feeder prices and feedgrain prices. There is also coverage on cattle crush calculations and sensitivity analysis based on current market views for feedgrains and fed cattle. We are looking at profit potential over the next 4, 6, and 8 months.
2) Fed Cattle
Cattle and Beef Supplies
This section analyzes cattle on feed numbers and projections. We also discuss the slaughter pace, carcass weights and trends. The Canadian and US situation are discussed in detail. Total supplies are monitored which means we also look at beef imports exports. While recent trade data is discussed, the focus is on the upcoming potential and how this will influence price. Canadian fed cattle exports to the US are also discussed and the current price structure in the Canadian market.
Beef Demand
This entails looking at packing margins, wholesale prices, retail prices, consumer tastes and preferences, and consumer incomes. We do a good job of discussing the overall economy and how beef consumption patterns are improving or changing. For example, we discuss restaurant traffic and overall demand at holiday resorts and conventions. We focus on the supply of competing meats and discuss how pork and poultry are encouraging or discouraging beef consumption.
Price Summary, Forecasts and Futures and Options Strategies
This is self explanatory and we are looking 4, 8 and 12 months forward. We usually provide a technical comment on the live cattle futures in this section.
3) Feeder Cattle
The Feeder cattle section is important for feedlot operators, backgrounding operators and cow calf producers. We are looking at long term trends and discuss the following: Cow slaughter, cow numbers, heifer retention or heifers held back for breeding. We are looking 3 years forward when discussing calf crops and the cattle cycle and longer term price outlooks.
For the nearby price outlook, we discuss trends in feeder cattle exports, current auction market information and feedlot buying ideas. Where does a feedlot need to buy the feeders to start off in a positive margin situation. The Canadian dollar effect on exports and margins is also implemented in this analysis.
Price Summary, Forecasts and Futures and Options Strategies
Again, this is self explanatory. We usually include charts for a technical comment as well.
4) Feedgrains
This section includes, supply and demand projections for barley, corn and alternate feedgrains such as DDGS for current crop year and the upcoming crop year. We also look at world crop conditions, world trade flows and how this affects North American feedgrain prices. We make price projections along with recommendations in the cash and futures market. We focus on the world fundamentals and include a technical chart comment on the market.
5) Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar is a very unique market. World Speculators, Government intervention, currency and interest rate arbitrage opportunities all come into focus when discussing the outlook for the Canadian dollar. We discuss Canadian exports and project demand for Canadian dollars. In the conclusion portion of this section, we make recommendations for all types of cattle producers.
6) Outside Influences
If we have learned anything over the past year, we have realized how the global economy and commodity markets are connected. Therefore, we discuss inflationary factors, energy markets, interest rates and any other factor that we feel will influence the cattle or beef markets.