ProMarket Wire Sample Issue
	Thursday, September 04, 2008

Oh Oh! Feedgrains . . .    Canola Bids Stumble, Fumble Away . . .    Stock Markets Lambasted                Markets were not good today . . . More bad news for the U.S. economy in the form of rising unemployment ‘n sluggish retail sales slammed the Dow Jones 300 points lower early day. And the Toronto TSX wasn’t far behind. With the American economy still in-freefall and global economies contracting, commodity markets were again under fire. October crude oil sliced to a low of $106.52 per barrel. Fallout rainfall from Hurricane Gustav also tracked across the Midwest providing needed moisture for the U.S. soybean crop. “This rain will boost soybean yields, but corn is now too mature and won’t receive much benefit” stated a Nebraska analyst. Canola continued its price slide . . . Price weakness in the U.S. soy complex had Canadian canola values under pressure at the opening gun today. “Farmers aren’t too impressed with canola bids right now. Many are signing basis contracts and delivering unpriced” stated an Edmonton buyer. November canola tested a low of $527/MT this morning. It was a good day for Western Barley bulls to just stay in bed . . . Western Barley tumbled a further $5/MT pressured by active harvest hedges and speculative selling. “There are reports of enormous barley yields. Growers will just have to pile barley on the ground. Bin space will be at a premium” commented a Coronation feeder. October Western dumped to a low of $216/MT. Live cattle traded mixed . . . Talk that a major U.S. packer is closing its Saturday kill operation tempered buying despite ideas cash cattle may change hands $1/cwt higher on Friday. And the Canadian dollar started higher, but gains couldn’t hold due to commodity price weakness. Our spot dollar again broke below 94 cents U.S. Cash Market Snapshot Cdn $ Spot 93.73 dn.55     Dec 93.46 dn.67     Mar 93.46 dn.67          Cash Wheat Sales Replacement Tool: Growers note . . . Wheat may be the only grain market that is now bottoming. Record global production is now being offset with quality issues. With bugs ‘n rain downgrading at least 70% of the Black Sea wheat crop, top quality wheat prices have likely bottomed. TOP QUALITY WORLD WHEAT PRICES HAVE LIKELY BOTTOMED. For growers wanting a tool to replace board or open market wheat sales consider a ‘call option bull spread’ . . . Buy a March Chicago wheat $8.00 (in-the-money) call ‘n sell a March $8.80 call for 28 cents/bu or lower ($1,400 per 5,000 contract). Max trade value is 80 cents/bu or $4,000 U.S. per contract should March wheat surge to $8.80/bu or higher into expiry. Strength of marketing tool . . . 1. Time (expires late February 09) 2. Quality (March futures already above $8/bu). For more info or to place a trade, call Errol or John in Calgary @ 1-888-216-2490.      CWB Wheat Fixed Price Update: Fixed prices have struggled of late. For #1CWRS 13.5% wheat, the board fixed price now hovers at $317/MT ($8.63/bu) fob port compared to the latest PRO of $358/MT ($9.74/bu). FIXED CWRS WHEAT PRICE NOW AT A SIGNIFICANT DISCOUNT TO PRO. Growers will now net between $6.80 to $7.20/bu delivered elevator. Wheat Marketing Tip: Move your lowest quality wheat first, if possible this crop year. Lower quality wheat will be more difficult to find a home. If you have quality issues on your farm, consider upgrading your wheat on paper. ie: sell low quality and buy higher quality wheat on paper. This strategy has several advantages . . . 1. You receive fall cashflow. 2. You are getting rid of (managing) a quality problem. 3. In the event of a wheat market rebound, higher quality wheat gains will outperform lower grades. Again, if you are in this market situation, give us a call 1-888-216-2490 . . . there are options to your wheat marketing toolbox.      Sell (Move) Your Feedgrains: Talk of enormous barley yields (100 bu/acre plus) suggest Western Canada may be swimming in feedgrains for many weeks ahead. And if frost/rain takes a swipe at wheat quality, there is a messy feedgrain oversupply on our hands. CANADIAN FEEDGRAIN OVERSUPPLY SEEN AHEAD/DELIVERY CONGESTION.      Barley/Feed wheat Producer Strategy: Move your cash feedgrain and replace with March/May corn call option bull spreads. This is a much more effective strategy than fighting an oversupplied. congested cash market. Feedgrain marketing creativity could save substantial cash market grief for growers. Errol      Cash Market Snapshot: Milling Wheat stdy, Flax stdy, Mustard stdy, Green Peas stdy, Malt Barley easy, Lentils easy, Fat Cattle easy, Canola dn, Feed Wheat dn, Feed Barley dn, Hogs dn, Feeder Cattle dn, Yellow Peas dn, Cdn $ dn. For more info regarding the malt barley market, call Rod Green ‘Central Ag Marketing’ in Airdrie @ 1-800-979-9895 ICI Futures Canada Prices: Canola, Wheat and Barley ICI Futures Canada - Options: Canola, Wheat, and Barley. CBOT Futures Prices: Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Oats CME Futures Prices: Cattle, Hogs, etc. Intraday Stocks & Indexes: TSX 300 12,816 -318 Dow Jones 11,253 -278 U.S. $ 78.53 +.44 Energies & Metals: Crude Oil Oct 107.82 -1.53 Gold Oct 798.90 -5.40 Silver Dec 12.90 -.04 ProMarket Wire is published weekdays by: ProMarket Communications Inc., #4 Thorncliffe Crescent NW, Calgary, AB T2K 3A9 Phone (403) 275-5555    Fax (403) 275-4228    As you know, markets will be markets. No one knows where the top or bottom lies. Promarket Wire is designed to assist in locking in profits when opportunities lie. Market recommendations are an opinion based on protecting business profit.    Copyright 1997 - 2008. All rights reserved. ProMarket Wire is protected by copyright. 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