ProMarket Wire
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Site Created July 17, 1997;  Last Updated  February 14, 2019
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The author(s) of this newsletter are employed by R.J. O’Brien & Associates Canada Inc. (“RJO Canada”), a Canadian regulated FCM. The content and opinions expressed within this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not necessarily shared by RJO Canada. RJO Canada is not responsible or liable for any actions taken from use of content, expressed opinions, accuracy, forecasted projections, or any other content expressed within the newsletter. Responsibility for all content of this newsletter remains solely with ProMarket Communications Inc. (403) 275-5555.
Sample Issue
Thursday, February 07, 2019 [ Printable pdf version ]
ProMarket Wire provides cash market opinion assisting agri-business  (403) 275-5555  Rebroadcast is prohibited
Late Day Financials: Toronto TSX 15,701 -11   Dow Jones 25,122 -268   U.S. $ 96.49 +.11 Energies and Metals: Bitcoin Mar 3,335 +10   Crude Oil Apr 53.08 +1.26   Gold Apr 1,314.00 -.40 Cash Market Snapshot:  Spot Cdn 75.21 dn.52   Mar Cdn 75.26 dn.55   Jun Cdn 75.41 dn.55 Collapsing Ocean Freight Rates: Ocean rates for bulk commodities ie: iron ore, coal and grains are in- collapse. Over the past month, the Baltic Dry Freight index has plunged more than 50%. This appears to be a direct reflection of the economic slowdown in China impacting global commodity demand. But it also contributes added deflationary price pressures. Current commodity world is driven by demand, not supply. COMMODITY WORLD NOW DRIVEN BY DEMAND, NOT SUPPLY. Feedlot Barley Market Update: Firm tone persists for southern Alberta feedlot delivered barley prices. Picture Butte area feeders currently bidding $256 to $258/MT ($5.58 - $5.62/bu) for Feb/Mar delivery. For April to June movement, feedlot alley bids are heard as high as $265/MT ($5.75/bu) delivered. For central Alberta, feeders appear bidding $245 to $252/MT ($5.33 - $5.48/bu) delivered for March to June movement. Tightening barley supplies plus approaching roadban season will maintain a strong tone to local barley prices. Again, a brisk barley export pace into Asia has tightened our domestic supplies. Cheaper corn and feed wheat continues to move into cattle rations. Slumping Finished Cattle Prices: Cdn fed steer prices have been in-a-dive over the past ten (10) days. In Alberta, fed steers have tumbled a further 6 to 8 cents per lb this week and now averaging $1.48/lb. Over the past few days, our slaughter prices have dropped 12 cents/lb. QUICK 12 CENT/LB ALBERTA FED CATTLE BID WASHOUT. For cattle feeders with short hedges / put options, consider maintaining your price protection. China / U.S. Trade Deal Prospects: White House now admitting trade deal may remain far away. This is uneasy news for the U.S. soybean market. Soybeans desperately need a bullish boost from USDA tomorrow or a sharp sell-off lies in-waiting. Stay tuned to ProMarket Wire. Canola Put Options Again: Growers note . . . these are protective put options that catch-our-eye for both old and new crop canola price protection. May canola $500/MT (deep-in-the-money) puts @ $13/MT. July canola $500/MT (at-the-money) puts traded for $12/MT today. November canola $500/MT (in-the- money) puts may trade @ $17/MT. Consider keeping your price-guard-up. Errol
Fat Cattle Bids Slump... Baltic Dry Index Fallout... China/U.S. No Deal... Loonie Swoons… Grain traders appear a little uneasy heading into tomorrow’s multi-release of USDA reports. U.S. wheat futures swooned yet again . . . March Kansas City wheat ruptured 14 cents testing a low of $4.95/bu mid-day. “Wheat traders saw a drop in U.S. export prices this morning. The U.S. continues to have difficulty exporting product due to the high value of the (U.S.) dollar” commented a CME trader. Soybeans also struggled . . . Larry Kudlow’s comments mid-morning that the U.S. and China remain far away from a trade deal triggered soybean selling. March soybeans took aim at $9.10/bu. The prospects of a U.S. / China trade deal appear to be dimming. Trump is now not meeting with Chinese leader Xi in February” stated a Chicago analyst. Canola bent lower early, then recovered . . . March canola tested a low of $482/MT but weakness in the Cdn dollar provided modest buying support late day. Our loonie lost more than ½ cent with the March contract hitting an early day low of 75.15 cents U.S. “This is a good week for the loonie to lose steam. This may be what’s stopping our canola futures from retesting contract lows” commented a Winnipeg analyst. The cattle board slumped early . . . April live cattle slipped to a low of $126.62/cwt. Stiff losses in lean hogs appeared to weigh on the cattle board. April lean hogs cascaded to a low of $59.30/cwt pressured by waning pork cutout values. And stock markets tumbled . . . Worries about the U.S./China war not being resolved triggered selling. “Goldman Sachs now suggests U.S. stock markets may have already seen their highs for 2019” a comment from New York.
Close Change Close Change Close Change Mar Canola $ 484.20 -  $ 0.60 Mar Corn $ 3.764 -  $ 0.034 Mar Chic Wheat $ 5.132 -  $ 0.126 May Canola   $ 492.90   + $ 0.10   00   May Corn   $ 3.842   -  $ 0.036   May Chic Wheat   $ 5.170   -  $ 0.116   Jul Canola $ 500.60 + $ 0.40 Jul Corn $ 3.922 -  $ 0.034 Jul Chic Wheat $ 5.216 -  $ 0.104 Nov Canola $ 498.60 + $ 0.50 Dec Corn $ 4.002 -  $ 0.026 Dec Chic Wheat $ 5.426 -  $ 0.076 Jan Canola $ 503.00 + $ 0.70 Mar Oats  $ 2.862 -  $ 0.012 Mar Minn Wht $ 5.646 -  $ 0.086 Mar Beanoil $ 0.3081 -  $ .0009 May Oats  $ 2.880 -  $ 0.006 May Minn Wht $ 5.680 -  $ 0.080 May Beanoil $ 0.3112 -  $ .0008 Jul Oats  $ 2.876 -  $ 0.006 Jul Minn Wht $ 5.750 -  $ 0.072 Jul Beanoil $ 0.3143 -  $ .0006     Dec Minn Wht $ 5.926 -  $ 0.062 Apr Live Cattle $ 126.825 -  $ 0.325 Mar Soybeans $ 9.132 -  $ 0.084 Jun Live Cattle $ 117.150 -  $ 0.075 Mar KC Wheat $ 4.962 -  $ 0.130 May Soybeans $ 9.272 -  $ 0.084 Aug Live Cattle $ 113.875 + $ 0.125 May KC Wheat $ 5.036 -  $ 0.110 Jul Soybeans $ 9.410 -  $ 0.082 Oct Live Cattle $ 115.550 + $ 0.050 Jul KC Wheat $ 5.112 -  $ 0.110 Nov Soybeans $ 9.756 -  $ 0.060 Dec Live Cattle $ 117.800 + $ 0.100 Dec KC Wheat $ 5.372 -  $ 0.076 Mar Soymeal $ 305.50 -  $ 3.50 Apr Fdr Cattle $ 144.875 + $ 0.025 Apr Nat Gas $ 2.572 -  $ 0.085 May Soymeal $ 309.50 -  $ 3.50 Aug Fdr Cattle $ 150.075 + $ 0.400 Apr Lean Hogs $ 59.600 -  $ 1.300