ProMarket Wire
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Site Created July 17, 1997;  Last Updated  July 20, 2018
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Sample Issue
Friday, July 13, 2018 [ Printable pdf version ]
ProMarket Wire provides cash market opinion assisting agri-business  (403) 275-5555  Rebroadcast is prohibited
Late Day Financials:  Toronto TSX 16,555 -11   Dow Jones 25,006 +81   U.S. $ 94.75 -.07 Energies and Metals: Bitcoin Sep 6,265 +100   Crude Oil Aug 70.71 +.38   Gold Aug 1,241.30 -5.30 Cash Market Snapshot:  Spot Cdn 76.02 up.09   Sep Cdn 76.05 up.04   Dec Cdn 76.16 up.04 Canola Sputters ‘n Shutters: Where to now? A $25/MT fallout in canola this week is a game-changer for new crop canola. Technically, ICE canola futures are oversold, but fundamentally not so much. The U.S. soybean market is now a complete mess. Trade patterns are changing. SOYBEAN TRADE PATTERNS NOW CHANGING. Brazil will be a buyer of U.S. soybeans. Soybean prices have moved cheaper to-the-point that Mexico, Thailand and Pakistan are now buyers. With November canola breaking $490/MT support today like Swiss cheese, next stop appears to be $480/MT. But bottomline is; Without a break in this trade war, U.S. soybean carryouts will be up sharply in 2019. Acres will swing toward corn as bean profitably slumps. Trump may be playing hardball into U.S. mid-term elections and then soften his stance. But waiting that long and the damage will be done for the U.S. bean market. Canola Growers Note: There is further risk of more canola bid fallout. Canola basis levels will have to be sweetened, but not enough to counter the mess the U.S. has made of the global soybean market. CANOLA BASIS LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE SWEETENED, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE MESS THE U.S. HAS MADE OF THE GLOBAL SOYBEAN MARKET.  Hedgers . . . maintain your fall price protection. There will be recoveries, but canola is now in a lower trading window heading into the harvest market. Note: January canola now has heavy resistance at $507.50/MT (SEE CHART). Cdn Cattle Basis Strengthens: Cash cattle across the U.S. southern plains appear trading $2 to $5/cwt lower this week. Texas bids heard @ $108/cwt. In Alberta, fed steers appear averaging $152/cwt or $1.52/lb. ALBERTA CATTLE BASIS STRENGTHENS OVER U.S CASH. Next week . . . further U.S. cash cattle pressure, but Cdn bids seen steady. Barley Market Update: Quiet heading into crop year end. Picture Butte feeders have limited barley delivered at $237 to $238/MT ($5.15 - $5.18/bu) for July movement. Aug-delivered bids slide toward $230/MT ($5/bu) into feedlot alley. Fall- delivered bids into southern Alberta may slip into a $215 to $220/MT ($4.70 - $4.80/bu) harvest low. Note: With the fallout in U.S. corn prices, Cdn feeder cattle are apt to be shipped to the U.S. CDN FEEDER CATTLE MAY BE SHIPPED INTO U.S. MARKET DUE TO CHEAP CORN PRICES. Errol
Global Recession On-The-Way... Soybean Train-Wreck... Canola Sputters ‘n Shutters... There’s just no other polite way to say it . . . but a global recession is now fast approaching, including the U.S. The U.S. gov’t stated last night that tariffs will not hurt the U.S. economy. But in our view, Trump protectionism is quickly shepherding in an American recession that will spread globally unless there is a break in this trade war soon. Thanks to soybean fallout, canola was hammered this morning. November canola cascaded to a low of $484.50/MT. November soybeans slammed below $8.27/bu. “Soybean trade patterns are quickly changing” commented an Illinois analyst. “The tariff war is really a currency war commented Trump’s deputy Chief of Staff. December corn tested a low of $3.52/bu. But U.S. wheat futures had some footing thanks to bullish USDA data. Kansas City wheat rose a dime mid-morning. Both live and feeder cattle traded cautiously . . . August live cattle briefly broke below $104/cwt. “Cattle prices are dropping stateside. But Cdn cattle bids are holding up” commented a Calgary analyst. And the Cdn dollar remains unstable. Despite a BOC rate hike, the loonie weakened late week. Our spot Cdn is now hovering around 76 cents U.S. WTI crude had a tough week which pressured the Western Cdn Select oil price. WCS oil eased toward $42.50 per barrel late week. And gold is in a big-time slump. August gold slid toward $1,236 per oz mid-morning with major chart support now seen at $1,200 per oz. “Gold bulls are in major hurt. And the precious metal technicals simply point lower” a comment from New York.
Cash Market Snapshot: Flax firm, Fed Cattle firm, Feeder Cattle firm, Edible Peas stdy, Yellow Mustard stdy, Milling Wheat easy, 2CW Oats easy, Cdn $ easy, Lentils easy, Durum easy, Hogs dn, Fd Barley dn, Corn dn, Soybeans dn, Canola dn.
Close   Change       Close   Change       Close   Change   Nov Canola   $ 485.10   -   $ 7.70   Dec Corn   $ 3.546   -   $ 0.044   Dec Chic Wheat   $ 5.124   + $ 0.112   Jan Canola   $ 491.80   -   $ 7.00   00   Mar Corn   $ 3.664   -   $ 0.044   Mar Chic Wheat   $ 5.274   + $ 0.092   Mar Canola   $ 497.10   -   $ 6.50   May Corn   $ 3.732   -   $  0.044   May Chic Wheat   $ 5.384   + $ 0.084   May Canola   $ 501.80   -   $ 6.00   Jul Corn   $ 3.792   -   $ 0.042   Jul Chic Wheat   $ 5.426   + $ 0.076   Jul Canola   $ 503.80   -   $ 5.40                     Dec Oats     $ 2.416   + $ 0.004   Dec Minn Wht   $ 5.492     $ 0.000   Dec Beanoil   $ 0.2839   -   $  .0030   Mar Oats     $ 2.454   + $ 0.002   Mar Minn Wht   $ 5.646   -   $ 0.006   Mar Beanoil   $ 0.2897   -   $ .0030   May Oats     $ 2.472   + $ 0.002   May Minn Wht   $ 5.750   -   $ 0.014   May Beanoil   $ 0.2931   -   $ .0029           Jul Minn Wht   $ 5.846   -   $ 0.020         Aug Live Cattle   $ 104.550   -   $   0.475         Nov Soybeans   $ 8.342   -   $ 0.150   Oct Live Cattle   $ 107.375   -   $ 0.225   Dec KC Wheat   $ 5.162   + $ 0.104   Jan Soybeans   $ 8.442   -   $ 0.146   Dec Live Cattle   $ 111.400   -   $ 0.175   Mar KC Wheat   $ 5.346   + $ 0.106   Mar Soybeans   $ 8.534   -   $ 0.142   Feb Live Cattle   $ 115.750   -   $ 0.200   May KC Wheat   $ 5.452   + $ 0.104   May Soybeans   $ 8.626   -   $ 0.140   Apr Live Cattle   $ 117.425   -   $ 0.400   Jul KC Wheat   $ 5.500   + $ 0.090                     Dec Soymeal   $ 323.00   -   $ 4.70   Aug Fdr Cattle   $ 150.725   -   $ 0.300   Aug Nat Gas   $ 2.807   -   $ 0.022   Mar Soymeal   $ 313.80   -   $ 4.20   Sep Fdr Cattle   $ 151.075   + $ 0.100   Aug Lean Hogs   $ 70.150   -   $ 0.275